It’s been a while since I have written. Truthfully there has not been much about which to write. I could go on and on explaining why U.S. treasuries have been range traded. Or why the Fed will not act to raise rates until at least mid-2012. I could send out a big “I told you so” about the Fed exiting out of QE assets early in the tightening process.
I could discuss how the high yield market is over priced, as are high-grade industrial bonds. Even the energy sector is trading stupid-tight with BBB-rated issuers like Arcelor Mittal trading at similar levels as AA-rated GE Capital (which had strong earnings).
Trading and sales desks continue to push floating rate paper onto fearful investors who do not under stand how the product works. Given the outlook for interest rates and Fed policy and the disconnect between said securities long-dated maturities (some are perpetual) and their coupon benchmarks (most often three-month U.S. dollar LIBOR). It could be a long while before floaters perform well. Meanwhile, investors are stuck with dismal rates of return. Fixed-to-float notes and step-ups are better alternatives. A laddered custom portfolio is the best way to invest in the fixed income markets.
Where are all the so-called gurus who used espoused technical reasons for higher rates? What happened to the much-feared exodus out of the U.S, dollar? What happened to China’s rebalancing of its foreign debt holdings (China is currently carrying its biggest holding of U.S. treasuries thus far in 2011)? It was all bupkus. Beware the alarmists who predict the end. They should go back to airports and street corners where they belong.
Have a great weekend.
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