Yesterday, Fed Governor Kevin Warsh became a voice of sanity crying in the wilderness. Writing in the Wall Street Journal (and later in the day reiterating in a speech) Mr. Warsh railed against policies which focus on short-term fixes and a return to irresponsible consumer behavior. Mr. Warsh stated:
“The prevailing theory has it that U.S. policy makers should not deny our foregone fate. We should accept smaller improvements in output and employment and productivity. We should resign ourselves to the new normal and conduct policy accordingly. That is the last best hope, they argue, to preserve the remaining vestiges of a golden age that is no more.
I reject this view. I consider this emerging ethos to be dangerous and defeatist and debunked by America's own exceptional economic history. Our citizens are not unwitting victims of some unavoidable fate. The current period of subpar growth and high unemployment is real, but it need not persist. We should not lower our expectations. We should improve our policies.
Broad macroeconomic policies have not changed direction in the past several years. But change they must if we are to prosper. We can no longer afford to tolerate economic policies that are preoccupied with the here and now. Chronic short-termism in the conduct of economic policy has done much to bring us to this parlous point.
Policy makers should be skeptical of the long-term benefits of temporary fixes to do the hard work of resurrecting the world's great economic power. Since early 2008, the fiscal authorities have sought to fill the hole left by the falloff in demand through large, temporary stimulus—checks in the mail to spur consumption, temporary housing rebates to raise demand, one-time cash-for-clunkers to move inventory, and temporary business tax credits to spur investment.
These programs may well have boosted gross domestic product for a quarter or two, but that is scarcely a full accounting of their effects. These stimulus programs did little to put the economy on a stronger, more sustainable trajectory. Sound fiscal policy must do more than reacquaint consumers with old, bad habits.
Policy makers should take notice of the critical importance of the supply side of the economy. The supply side establishes the economy's productive capacity. Recovery after a recession demands that capital and labor be reallocated. But the reallocation of these resources to new sectors and companies has been painfully slow and unnecessarily interrupted. We are feeling the ill effects.
Fiscal authorities should resist the temptation to increase government expenditures continually in order to compensate for shortfalls of private consumption and investment. A strict economic diet of fiscal austerity has greater appeal, a kind of penance owed for the excesses of the past. But root-canal economics also does not constitute optimal economic policy.
The U.S. would be better off with a third way: pro-growth economic policy. The U.S. and world economies urgently need stronger growth, and the adoption of pro-growth economic policies would strengthen incentives to invest in capital and labor over the horizon, paving the way for robust job-creation and higher living standards.
Pro-growth policies include reform of the tax code to make it simpler, more transparent and more conducive to long-term investment. These policies also include real regulatory reform so that firms—financial and otherwise—know the rules, and then succeed or fail. Regulators should be hostile to rent-seeking by the established, and hospitable to the companies whose names we do not know. Finally, the creep of trade protectionism is anathema to pro-growth policies. The U.S. should signal to the world that it is ready to resume leadership on trade.
The deleveraging by our households and businesses is not a pattern to be arrested, but good prudence to be celebrated. Larger, more liquid corporate balance sheets and higher personal saving rates are the reasonable and right responses to massive government dissaving and unpredictable government policies. The steep correction in housing markets, while painful, lays the foundation for recovery, far better than the countless programs that have sought to subsidize and temporize the inevitable repricing. It is these transitions in our market economy—and the adoption of pro-growth fiscal, regulatory and trade policies—that lay the essential groundwork for greater, more sustainable prosperity.
Monetary policy also has an important role to play. However, the Federal Reserve is not a repair shop for broken fiscal, trade or regulatory policies. Given what ails us, additional monetary policy measures are poor substitutes for more powerful pro-growth policies. The Fed can lose its hard-earned credibility—and monetary policy can lose its considerable sway—if its policies overpromise or under deliver.
Last week, my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in this debate. The FOMC announced its intent to purchase an additional $75 billion of long-term Treasury securities per month through the second quarter of 2011. The FOMC did not make an unconditional or open-ended commitment. I consider the FOMC's action as necessarily limited, circumscribed and subject to regular review. Policies should be altered if certain objectives are satisfied, purported benefits disappoint, or potential risks threaten to materialize.
Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in commodity prices, and other forward-looking indicators are sustained and passed along into final prices, the Fed's price stability objective might no longer be a compelling policy rationale. In such a case—even with the unemployment rate still high—we would have cause to consider the path of policy. This is truer still if inflation expectations increase materially.
The Fed's increased presence in the market for long-term Treasury securities poses nontrivial risks that bear watching. The prices assigned to Treasury securities—the risk-free rate—are the foundation from which the price of virtually every asset in the world is calculated. As the Fed's balance sheet expands, it becomes more of a price maker than a price taker in the Treasury market. If market participants come to doubt these prices—or their reliance on these prices proves fleeting—risk premiums across asset classes and geographies could move unexpectedly.
Overseas—as a consequence of more-expansive U.S. monetary policy and other distortions in the international monetary system—we see an increasing tendency by policy makers to intervene in currency markets, administer unilateral measures, institute ad hoc capital controls, and resort to protectionist policies. Extraordinary measures tend to beget extraordinary countermeasures. Heightened tensions in currency and capital markets could result in a more protracted and difficult global recovery.
Responsible monetary policy in the current environment requires attention not only to near-term macroeconomic conditions, but also to corollary risks with long-term effects. Should these risks threaten to materialize, however one gauges the probabilities, I am confident that the FOMC will have the tools and conviction to adjust policies appropriately. “
Bravo, Mr. Warsh! Some of us have been of similar opinions, but have been marginalized by those who believe that blind optimism and an inflated stock market will heal all wounds. This is not the case. Poor polices and consumer and business irresponsibility got is into this mess. Fundamentally sound polices, a resetting of asset prices (especially home prices) and a reallocation of labor and resources will get us out of this.
Some pundits are viewing Mr. Warsh’s comments as some kind of heresy at the Fed. Come on folks, this is orchestrated Fed jawboning at its best. The Fed knows it can’t fix what ails the economy. It can only keep thing going until better policies are implemented. Imagine the economy as a ship with a breached hull. The Fed is the damage control crew manning the pumps keeping the ship afloat until the repair crew back at the dry dock (Capitol Hill) can make structural repairs. Make no mistake; the economy is still broken,
Is it me or is it ironic that our trading partners who have active policies to maintain favorable exchange rates to promote their exports are angry with the U.S. for managing our currency. I am not advocating a weak dollar policy at all, but the irony here does not escape me.
Speaking of our trading partners they were all over today’s 10-year auction, buying a record 56.5% of the deal. Some believed the auction to be weak because the bid-to-cover was soft, but with foreign central banks willing to buy 10-year treasury notes at yields under 2.60% in an attempt to keep the dollar from weakening further, I would not be worried about a lack of demand in the markets. The treasury has yet to weigh on with its QE2 purchases. Mark my words, this time next year we will be looking at 10-year rates in the low 3.00% area and Fed Funds still effectively 0.00% (up to 0,25%).
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