After two days of starting the day lower only to recover most if not all of its losses, the Dow Jones Industrial Average began the day in positive territory only to finish in the red. Experts are still debating the significance of the market reversing direction in either direction at the end of the day. The core reason for the market giving up gains or recovering losses is quite simple. No one wants to be exposed going into the overnight hours, long or short. What trader would want to be exposed to foreign markets these days during the overnight hours or weekends when once cannot react to whatever events which may develop. Flat is the name of the game.
Today's 5-year U.S. treasury auction was reasonably well received. The bid to cover ratio was 2.71 versus a 2.57 average for the prior 10 auctions. However indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks, made up 40.6% of the auction versus an average of 48% for the prior 10 auctions. It is not surprising that treasury buyers are not tripping over each other trying to buy the five year at a yield of 2.13%. However, they are likely to continue buying the 10-year note. If one is to believe the famous (or infamous) Bill Gross, the U.S. is still the safest place on Earth. yes the U.S. has its problems, but one doesn't need to be faster than the bear, just faster than one's friend. We are certainly faster (and stronger) than Europe. Look for low rates to be the norm. LIBOR may continue to rise, but not because of improved growth forecasts. Rather, LIBOR may continue to rise as banks demand more yield from each other for short-term borrowing. The yield curve is often as reactive as it is proactive.
There continues to be much misunderstanding among investors as to the mechanics of TIPS and floaters. Please send any and all questions to me and answers will be provided.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that at least two other banks have engaged in so-called "Repo 105" transactions. These transactions involve the repo of bonds, but booking that lending of collateral as sales. Banks do this so they can say that the debt is question is no longer on their balance sheets. This is a very shady practice. Unfortunately it is not surprising given the banks mentioned in the article.
1 comment:
I work in the industry and I think it’s important to note that SEC Chief Accountant James Kroeker testified last week (http://www.webcpa.com/debits_credits/Finance-Execs-Fret-over-Accounting-Standards-Overload-54317-1.html) , “Based on the requests, no information has come to our attention that would lead the staff to conclude that inappropriate practices were widespread.” I think that the recent discovery that Bank of America and Citicorp both used balance sheet management, including the use of repo agreements, shows that this practice was, and is, widespread within the banking community. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704792104575264731572977378.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LEFTTopNews))
The SEC must be blind if they cannot find that it is a common practice among banks. Just look at the facts, including data from the Federal Reserve Bank. In early April, the WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html#mod=todays_us_money_and_investing) reported that the New York Federal Reserve reported that big banks were masking risk levels by lowering debt before public disclosure. It also highlighted banks' levels of short-term financing in the repurchase, or "repo," market.
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